Even if we assume that all the above near-term problems can be solved, recognizing that the severity of each one can be lessened through shared information, intelligence, foresight, and change, other global annoyances will soon be upon us. Once any civilization moves beyond technological adolescence, it will regularly and naturally encounter all sorts of hazards while evolving along the arrow of time toward the future. Though less certain than those current issues noted earlier in this eighth, FUTURE EPOCH, such futuristic crises are eventually bound to have some debilitating effect on the well-being of Earth civilization. Consider a couple of conceivable difficulties as representative of many others in the distant future—a decrease in the quality of genes and an increase in the quality of computers—each of which could challenge our descendants sooner than most of us are willing to admit:

• Genetic degeneration is a typical boundary condition that could intensify many of the detrimental qualities of life on Earth. Once thought to belong to science fiction, or at least to the very far future, the reality of this problem could soon begin to display its ugly consequences.

• Silicon-based circuits—computers—continue to increase their smarts at an awesomely rapid pace. Though no one can say for sure, computers might someday subjugate us, perhaps even sending humankind down the path of extinction already trod by >99% of Earth’s life forms.

Genetic Degeneration This is a good example of a futuristic problem that civilizations must circumvent, suppress, or otherwise resolve in order to survive. It represents a basic quandary, like population growth, stemming from the discovery of bacteria. As for overpopulation that mushrooms rapidly once it reaches the explosive part of the exponential curve, genetic degeneration can subtly infiltrate communities of technologically intelligent creatures before bursting into the open. Its effects will not be easy to recognize before our descendants find themselves possibly pinned down and in desperate straits for a fix to help solve it. Futuristic or not, the roots of this problem seem to be taking hold in our society right now.

Recall for a moment the essence of neo-Darwinism: Random alterations in the DNA structure cause organisms to respond deterministically to gradually changing environments. For some, adaptation enables them to survive famously, often actively carving out whole new niches; for others, adaptation isn’t so successful, causing them to become inactive or even extinct. In short, genetic mutations followed by natural selection prompt survival of the fittest—the rule of order for all living things. Given enough time, though, even Nature’s rules change, much as was argued toward the end of the CULTURAL EPOCH.

Once a species evolves technological intelligence—at least the competence to invent medicine—the infant mortality rate decreases, the average life span increases, and not only do the fittest survive but almost everyone else does too. Although medicine cures contagious disease for the present generation, it would also seem to promote hereditary disease for future generations. Expressed another way, medicine currently improves health for us now living, but it could lead to a genetically polluted society for our future kids’ kids’ kids.

The gene pool is shifting, broadening. Mentally and physically deficient humans, previously unable to survive to the point of reproducing, now do both—and yield fertile offspring. Surely they contribute favorable as well as unfavorable traits, but the upshot is that the distribution of active genes within the human species is now changing much more rapidly than Nature would have done so in the absence of technically smart humans. No mutations are involved in this change; medicine alone is the culprit (Figure 8.9).

FIGURE 8.9 – Miracle cures provided by modern medicine allow not only the fit to survive but others too. Those now reproducing the human species are causing a rapid broadening of the gene pool. This is more of a cultural, rather than a biological, phenomenon. (Harvard Medical School)

Can the normal course of biological evolution keep pace with this rather sudden change in the availability of genes induced by the invention of medicine? The answer might be in the affirmative if biological evolution were indeed occurring as it has for the past several billion years. However, classical biological evolution of men and women is coming to a halt. An even more fundamental change is now under way.

After >10 billion years of cosmic evolution, the most complex system known to have evolved—that's us—is beginning to tinker with evolution itself, especially biological evolution. Whereas previously the gene (strands of DNA) and the environment (physical, biological or cultural) guided evolution, we humans on planet Earth are rather suddenly gaining control of both these agents of change. We are now tampering with matter, diminishing our planet’s resources while constructing the trappings of utility and comfort. And we are now beginning to manipulate life itself, potentially altering the genetic makeup of human beings.

The physicist unleashes the forces of Nature; the biologist experiments with maps of genomes; the psychologist influences behavior with drugs. We are, in fact, forcing a change in the way things change.

Be assured, stellar evolution continues unabated in the cores of stars everywhere. Chemical evolution occurs in such remote sites as galactic clouds and exotic moons. Biological evolution persists for most species on Earth and possibly on distant planets as well. And cultural evolution endures in many corners of our world today and conceivably on alien worlds beyond. But for technologically intelligent life, evolution per se is undergoing profound change.

Some specialists, seemingly impervious to long-term generalities, argue that genetic degeneration will not materialize into a global crisis threatening the survivability of civilization. They base their assessment on the presumption that our descendants will not hesitate to modify, through microsurgery and genetic engineering, the DNA structure of certain types of individuals. In other words, the current broadening of the gene pool toward the “extremes” can, in principal, be checked by unchancy, premeditated alterations of the genetic molecules themselves.

For some time now, science fiction writers have had a name for this kind of operation: breeding. This whole affair is only now beginning to shift from fiction to fact; genetic engineering is upon us. Once the transition is fully underway, the thrust of the dilemma along with its vast ethical implications will burst forth. Who controls the breeding? Which species, races, individuals should be bred? What’s to prevent the cloning of whole armies of professional brutes, however remote a possibility? How might genetic engineering affect the decisions needed to avoid nuclear and other types of self-destruction? Even if we could extract certain traits—aggression, perhaps—from the human psyche, should we do so? Without aggression and its competitive edge, what might happen to our exploratory drive, our curiosity?

Computing Machines Increasingly sophisticated “smart” machines—exemplified by computers, iPhones, and the pervasive silicon chip of Figure 8.10—are another potential hazard with which our descendants will have to grapple. Might artificial intelligence be the next stage in the ascent of cosmic evolution? Is it only a matter of time before silicon-based computers surpass or even replace carbon-based humans? Are our days of intellectual dominance numbered?

FIGURE 8.10 – Computer chips and integrated circuits have become ubiquitous in our modern society, controlling much of the technological aids that make our lives more comfortable, informed, and fast-paced. (MIT Lincoln Lab)

Scientists are now attempting to program computers to think, learn, and even create. The extent to which artificial intelligence—problem solving and decision making by machines in ways often done by humans—might be invented isn’t yet known. Though some researchers maintain that today’s computers are nothing more than devices to serve our human wishes, everyone agrees that such machines can now perform complex mathematical calculations much faster than humans. Speed is truly their forte. Not least, computer memories have also grown impressively larger, enabling them to store vast quantities of raw information—surely more than any single person can remember.

Programs written by humans, fed into today’s most advanced computers and further self-refined by the machine’s memory, now enable those computers to beat any human at checkers and almost anyone at chess. Having made a blunder, many computers store that mistake in their memory, never to be repeated; non-living computers, perhaps more effectively than living beings, can learn from experience. When the allowed time limit on moves is shortened enough—"blitz chess"—computers can easily trounce even a chess grand master. Furthermore, robots capable of making limited choices on their own without constant guidance from Earth are now being built to explore the surfaces of other planets of our Solar System.

Debates now rage about whether machines can ever be built to think or understand completely on their own. If learning is possible, is creativity next? Will computers someday not only help answer key questions, but also ask them? Some researchers suggest that such devices can never be constructed, that there are fundamental differences between humans and machines that no amount of technology can overcome. These critics claim that it’s incorrect even to suggest that computers work like human brains. The human qualities of will, intuition, emotion, and consciousness, not to mention the oft-claimed significance of a “mind” separable from the brain, all tend to suggest that today’s computers are, by comparison, nothing more than incredibly fast morons. Others disagree, regarding thinking computers as inevitable, given the rate of technological innovation. They believe that humans are essentially machines who will eventually build better machines to replace themselves.

FIGURE 8.11– The human brain might eventually morph into, or become part of, computing machines, potentially becoming a whole new species—as implied colloquially here by the proposed term Fragmentum silicus. (Lola Chaisson)

In any event and although it would seem that we can always “pull the plug,” it will be important to monitor the effect of machines on human values, human ethics, and self-respect in a world where people even think computing machines might someday dominate us. As fancifully implied by Figure 8.11, perhaps artificial intelligence is the next, natural, and conceivably inevitable stage in the ascent of cosmic evolution.